New Projections Reveal Worsening Food Insecurity in Pandemic’s Wake

Our national partners at Feeding America regularly revise hunger projections for states and localities across the country, most recently with a new set of figures in late October. First released in May during the early stages of the pandemic, the revised .  While unemployment and poverty rates in the second half of 2020 came in slightly better than expected across the Pacific Northwest, new projections reveal that are food insecurity remains drastically higher than pre-pandemic levels.

In May, Oregon State University projecting near-doubling of food insecurity as a result of the pandemic — indicating that as many as 1 in 5 Oregonians could face hunger. While the latest data paints a slightly more positive outlook, food insecurity rose by more than 35% — bringing food insecurity to the doorsteps of more than 720,000 of our neighbors across Oregon and Southwest Washington. to 1 in 6 Oregonians

	Overall FI Rate	Overall FI Rate
	Revised 2020 Projection	2018 Baseline	FI % change	FI population	# change
Oregon	16.10%	11.90%	35%	675,250	176,520
OFB Service Area (w/ Clark Co.)	15.80%	11.70%	36%	720,500	190,450

Feeding America’s projections are localized down to the county level. Oregon’s most rural counties saw the most dramatic adjustment with these revisions. This is understandable given that even slight adjustments can cause big swings in the unemployment or poverty rates of these communities given their small populations. If you would like to take a deep dive I’ve  attached the workbook with the estimates for the OFB Service Area (county, congressional district, service area, and state), and the supporting materials from Feeding America.

Top Counties by FI Rate (%)	Overall Food Insecurity Rate (2020 Projection)
Lincoln	20.90%
Coos	20.40%
Klamath	20.20%
Grant	19.60%
Curry	19.40%

Top Counties By Number of Food–insecure Individuals
Multnomah County, Oregon	133,230
Washington County, Oregon	73,770
Clark County, Washington	67,980
Lane County, Oregon	66,750
Clackamas County, Oregon	53,130
Marion County, Oregon	52,590